Study: Automotive Debt Is Out of Control, You’re Being Swindled

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Consumer Reports just released the findings of a year-long study looking into the latest trends in automotive loans and car payments. The resulting information highlights just how explosive the debt growth has been over the last 10 years and the arbitrary way in which borrowers are now being treated.

Long story short, we’re all being swindled.

With vehicle prices ballooning and the associated loans becoming longer than ever, dealers and lenders seem to be operating whatever way yields the steepest profit margins with only a modicum of consideration being given to the established frameworks designed to act as a guard rail. This has led to U.S. citizens carrying around a record $1.37 trillion in automotive load debt and customers with good credit being treated no different than those that fall into the subprime category. Sadly, the issue appears only appears to be worsening as new economic perils are only making things more expensive. Meanwhile, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is projecting national auto debt to swell to $1.42 trillion by year’s end. 

For the sake of comparison, Americans were only on the hook for $710 billion going into 2011. But the amount of debt being hauled behind us is only part of the story. Consumer Reports has used the study to assert that vehicles are eating up an increasingly large share of household incomes, citing nearly 858,000 loans from 17 major auto lenders.

From CR:

Today, Americans with new-car loans make an average monthly payment approaching $600 — up roughly 25 percent from a decade ago.

Most borrowers pay their loan with no problem. But in recent years, tens of thousands of consumers have found themselves in financial sinkholes after receiving high-interest, longer-term auto loans that, like the Maryland resident, put them at serious risk of default, CR’s investigation found.

This is happening as total auto loan debt held by Americans has increased dramatically over the past 10 years, surpassing $1.4 trillion — more than the gross domestic product of Australia. Because of recently skyrocketing prices for new and used cars, that debt is likely to grow even more.

“You’re not helping somebody to get a car if the odds are they’re going to lose it,” says Kathleen Engel, research professor at Suffolk University Law School in Boston who studies subprime financial products and is also the vice chair of CR’s board of directors. “That’s not getting somebody a car. That’s taking their money.”

Worse yet is that it’s not unheard of to see APRs surpassing 25 percent and lenders don’t seem to care who the customer is. While credit scores were invented back in the 1950s, under the auspices of delivering a standardized and impartial way of determining the creditworthiness of individual customers, the FICO score system used today didn’t appear until 1989. But it’s often been accused of allowing lenders to enact predatory stipulations on loans going to those with less-than-desirable numbers, particularly as the system has seen broader use.

Credit scores no longer apply exclusively to mortgage applications and loans. They’re now being included as part of some rental agreements and even job applications. It’s gotten to the point where we’ve begun to see pushback, often with claims that scoring doesn’t accurately represent debt risk and functionally serves to keep certain individuals from achieving upward mobility. While we’re not going to be diving into that, CR has asserted that the arbitrary nature of credit scoring has become a serious issue.

The outlet suggested that dealers and lenders are setting interest rates based upon something other than the standard loan underwriting practices. Instead, they’re conducting business in whatever manner “they think they can get away with” because many borrowers have no idea that they can (and should) negotiate terms or pit lenders/dealers against each other in hopes of getting a better bargain. Some of this is down to the legal and regulatory disparities between states. Though the outcome is the issue of focus because it’s in danger of permanently upending the economy when a meaningful percentage of the population can no longer afford to drive:

For one thing, it makes it harder to build the savings needed to purchase a car outright, says Pamela Foohey, a professor at the Cardozo School of Law in New York City who has published several studies on auto lending. Longer-term car loans — the average is now about six years — compound the problem, she says, trapping people in debt to fund a necessity like transportation.

“The trap for consumers, of course, is a boon to lenders,” Foohey says.

Falling behind on car payments can lead to repossession, triggering a cascade of other problems.

Lana Ash of Oklahoma and Dennis Lamar of Connecticut both had their vehicles repossessed last year in the middle of the pandemic, after getting stuck with high-APR car loans that proved to be more expensive than they could afford. Without a car, Lamar had to bum rides to doctors’ appointments. Ash had to take out another loan to fix a busted transmission on an old car.

“To this day, I still get emotional and upset about it,” Ash says.

Many Americans have faced similar outcomes. By spring 2021, an estimated 1 in 12 people with a car loan or lease, or almost 8 million Americans, were more than 90 days late on their car payments, according to a CR analysis of data from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and Philadelphia.

The resulting scenario has left us with a non-comparative automotive market where big businesses and banks can more effectively take advantage of their own customers. CR claimed that 46 percent of the 800,000+ loans reviewed were underwater, with owners owing $3,700 more (on average) than what the vehicle was actually worth. But we’re still just scratching the surface on how dark this is all becoming.

Consumer Reports utilized information disclosed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2019 and 2020 to investors of auto loan bonds, rounding out its research pool with thousands of pages of regulatory filings, court records, trade publications, industry reports, financial records, public documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, and interviews with more than 90 federal and state regulators, advocacy organizations, consumers, lawyers, legal experts, academics, and industry groups.

That data led to a few realizations, starting with the fact that your credit score is largely arbitrary when it comes to how vicious your auto loan is going to be. While there was a prevalence of individuals with scores exceeding 720 to receive better terms, literally everyone (including subprime borrowers) was subjected to APRs ranging between zero and 25 percent. CR likewise worried that lenders were intentionally putting customers into loans they couldn’t possibly afford, with over half of all subprime borrowers getting stuck with payments that were higher than 10 percent of their annual income. But almost none of the lenders bothered to check up on that, resulting in 96 percent of all auto loans going to people who never had their income verified.

This has likewise resulted in a surge of delinquencies over the last few years and a staggering increase in the amount of debt being carried around by Americans. But perhaps most alarming is how nobody seems interested in adhering to the underwriting practices that were supposedly put into place to keep things running smoothly in the fairest possible manner. Credit scores seem to be used to punish the subprime market without really offering much protection to those with good scores.

Consumer Reports said that it reached out to all 17 lenders covered in the analysis, in addition to industry groups like the American Financial Services Association and the National Automotive Finance Association. Some opted not to respond, with everyone declining to answer every question posed. Most also made assertions that consumers have the ability to make informed decisions for themselves and that there’s a wealth of information online for those interested.

Industry groups and financial institutions likewise claimed that auto lending was sufficiently regulated in the United States, suggesting that CR research failed to “contain enough information to accurately compare the loans similarly situated borrowers received.” Double-digit interest rates were dismissed as anomalies while the increased number of delinquencies and repossessions were dismissed entirely as they saw themselves as the only way for some customers to get vehicular loans.

“Consumers understand that rates will vary from creditor to creditor,” said Ed McFadden, a spokesperson for the American Financial Services Association. “They have ample opportunity to research and shop.”

Considering extended loan terms and a slightly higher interest rate can effectively add thousands onto even a modestly priced vehicle, it’s not difficult to see why CR is so critical of modern lending practices. There’s really no other way to spin this. Consumers are either morons, unworthy of being cut fairer deals, or financial institutions (and the dealership intermediaries) are predatory assholes that never seem to assume responsibility for their actions. And it’s all going to continue to be exacerbated as vehicle prices increase and automakers attempt to shift toward a direct sales model that further nullifies customers’ ability to negotiate payments.

This is like how modern safety requirements technically make it borderline impossible for new manufacturers to exist or any of my other anti-regulatory rants. CR has identified several industries working together to use the existing principles in whatever way yields them the most money. If you have some spare time, I highly suggest reading the entire report and inspecting the relevant investigative materials. It’s quite good, loaded with specific examples of the aforementioned problems, and written by Ryan Felton — who is adept at putting together these kinds of stories.

[Image: Gretchen Gunda Enger/Shutterstock]

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Vaccine Mandates Being Considered By Auto Industry, UAW

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With the Biden administration having announced that it would start requiring companies to vaccinate employees, automakers and UAW are finding themselves in a sticky situation. Unions had previously said they wanted to hold off on endorsing or opposing mandatory vaccinations until after they discussed things with the industry and their own members. Considering Joe Biden said he wouldn’t make vaccines mandatory less than 10 months ago, employers are getting caught with their pants around the proverbial ankles.

Automakers had previously been surveying white-collar workers to see what they wanted to do while upping on-site COVID restrictions, but operating under the impression that any hard decisions were likely a long way off and left entirely to their discretion. Now the Department of Labor’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration is planning a new standard that requires all employers with 100 (or more) employees to guarantee their workforce is fully vaccinated or require any unvaccinated workers to produce a negative test result on a minimum weekly basis. 

Employers that fail to implement the stated requirements could face fines of nearly $14,000 per violation, according to the White House, with penalties also doubling for those who refuse to wear masks during interstate travel. Those are potentially steep fees when you’re employees number in the thousands. Union officials have said they’re considering the matter without committing to more than absolutely necessary — though the UAW officially opposed vaccine requirements in the past.

From UAW President Ray Curry:

“The UAW has and continues to strongly encourage all members and their families to be vaccinated unless there is specific health or religious concerns. We know that this is the best way to protect our members, coworkers and their families.

We are reviewing the details of yesterday’s announcements and the impact on our members and our over 700 employer contracts.

In the meantime, we continue our member commitment to practice safety in every one of our worksites by following protocols including masks, sanitizing and reporting any exposure or symptoms of the virus. At the UAW we all understand that fighting this pandemic and protecting our families is key to our survival.”

Assuming the union ultimately decides to endorse the vaccine decree, it’s likely going to be fracturing its membership. While I am hardly against vaccinations, I strongly support informed consent and speaking candidly about this has resulted in autoworkers frequently confessing they’re similarly opposed to forced vaccinations. Many have said they would immediately quit their jobs, matching a recent Washington Post poll claiming 70 percent of unvaccinated workers would simply abandon their positions if vaccine mandates are instituted. It’s my assumption that the industry will have a sudden, catastrophic staffing shortage were it to move forward with the Biden plan.

Automakers have been similarly noncommittal, with manufacturers (including Ford, GM, Stellantis, Honda, and Toyota) stating they encourage staff to get vaccinated and want to adhere to all government-issued health protocols. But they typically steer clear of addressing the Biden plan directly, possibly indicating some hesitancy. That said, it hasn’t even been a full day since the vaccine mandate was announced and their HR and legal departments are probably wringing their hands as they ponder upon what’s to be done and the fallout it might create.

Every statement automakers have been willing to make thus far can be paraphrased into “hold on … we’ve got to think about this,” followed by a paragraph about how they believe in vaccinations and want to adhere to recommendations coming from the relevant health experts. Conversely, very little has been said about the rights or preferences of their employees.

I’m not going to beat around this bush. The entire premise of these mandates seems insane to me, bordering on wicked. As an American, I always thought the whole premise of the country was predicated upon the shared belief that personal liberties and freedom of choice trump everything else. But that doesn’t seem to be what’s coming down from the top anymore. The rhetoric being used by Joe Biden is egregiously confrontational, including statements like “we’ve been patient, but our patience is wearing thin” as he made sweeping assertions about how the unvaccinated are stifling national unity and progress. He also confusingly stated that vaccinated workers need to be “protected” from the unvaccinated.

Assuming vaccines are effective, shouldn’t it be the other way round? What exactly are we shielding people from when new strains continue to manifest, can still be spread amongst the vaccinated, and the shots we currently have are targeting older COVID variants that have lost steam?

The economic and social stress this is likely to place upon the industry and country as a whole will be nothing short of monumental. Protests have been erupting across the globe all summer. Truckers have started organizing in numerous countries and have refused to deliver to areas imposing strict COVID rules, exacerbating food shortages in urban areas. In the United States, the same was true for cities that opted to defund police departments. Now they’re starting to talk about strikes focused on vaccine and mask mandates while they’re already experiencing a severe shortage of drivers. Imagine if that spills over to an automotive sector that’s already been beleaguered by the semiconductor shortage, their suppliers, and every other industry you rely on.

[Image: Michael Vi/Shutterstock]

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The Great Used Car Buyup of 2021

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With automakers having a difficult time keeping production schedules thanks to COVID restrictions nuking demand and upending supply chains, 2021 arrived with plenty of problems. Desperate to replenish fleets they had sold off while everyone was locked indoors, rental agencies went on a used car buying spree. But it wasn’t just rental fleets that needed to be restocked, dealerships are also finding themselves with fewer models on the lot than they’re accustomed to — which is a bad position to be in when surveys have revealed consumers are now willing to pay stupidly high prices for automobiles.

They’re reportedly going to great lengths to acquire used cars as the great buyup of 2021 continues. 

While the average transaction for a new vehicle now exceeds $40,000 (depending on the source), the going rate for a used one is typically several grand more than it would have been just a few months earlier. Wholesale prices for used cars sold at auction are up 39 percent since the start of 2021 and retail values are up about 20 percent over the same period. It’s quite the steep curve but mimics the general trajectory we’ve seen of consumer goods over the last six months.

According to Automotive News, the situation has encouraged dealerships to get increasingly aggressive in regard to procuring additional vehicles. Some are now scouring private seller havens like Craigslist and Facebook’s marketplace for loose automobiles, with the biggest names (e.g. Carvana) flipping them on the very same channels.

The outlet spoke with Premier Automotive Group’s principal dealer, Troy Duhon, who explained he was issuing sales staff $200 to $400 for acquiring secondhand cars or trucks from private sellers.

“I had one particular salesperson last month buy 10 off the street,” Duhon explained. “And I made over $40,000 on those 10 vehicles.”

His franchise of 24 stores has managed to snag roughly 20 models per location this year, with Duhon claiming it was the smartest thing he’s done in two decades.

From AN:

With wholesale prices climbing to record highs week after week, dealers have become especially innovative in how they land quality used inventory to meet demand and preserve margins — although most have been extraordinarily profitable in this unprecedented market.

The need for inventory has become so acute that it has forced some dealers, such as DeNooyer Automotive Family in Michigan, to make difficult decisions.

Managing Partner Todd DeNooyer said the group has had to prioritize local customers, in many cases requiring out-of-market customers to have a trade-in vehicle in order to buy a car or truck.

“It’s kind of a tough decision to make as a dealer because you always want every sale you can, but you have to take a step back and realize that I want to sell to somebody that’s going to continue to do business with me over time,” DeNooyer said.

Other tactics have included asking existing customers to end their leases early so that vehicles can be placed on the lot for those juicy margins and entertaining a willingness to sell cars carrying more miles than would have previously been profitable. Many dealerships are finding themselves with fewer cars than seems prudent. To remedy this, some are accepting automobiles that aren’t in the kind of shape you might normally think would preclude them from being found anywhere but the sketchiest of stores.

It’s a solution we’ve also seen utilized by rental agencies, especially those that took the worst financial beatings during 2020.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index was up 48 percent (year over year) in May. It was a record and helped by a 3 percent increase in secondhand automotive sales during the period. Meanwhile, retail supplies have remained low (averaging 38 days) while demand continues to climb. Around a quarter of these cars don’t even have time to go through the service department due to public hunger.

J.D. Power has claimed that the slowed growth of wholesale pricing over the last few weeks ending on June 6th could be indicative of some kind of stabilization. But we’ve seen little hard evidence that prices are going to decline anytime soon until inflation is wrangled and new vehicle production normalizes — which requires supply chains (e.g. semiconductor providers) to get their act together. David Paris, J.D. Power’s senior manager of market insights, seems to agree.

“I don’t think personally we’re going to see used prices fall off the face of the planet,” he said. “When they do start to come down, it’s going to be a gradual move downward as new-vehicle production gradually comes back on.”

The only upside is that private sellers can make a small fortune selling their vehicles to a desperate dealership. But that might be a risky play if they don’t have another form of transportation waiting in the wings. Stores are making big money on these cars and the markups are exceptionally steep. It’s kind of like how massive financial institutions are buying up homes for a premium and then turning them around on desperate consumers by jacking up the price or transitioning them into high-end rental properties.

We’re just wondering how long this all lasts. These massive jumps in pricing hardly seem sustainable with the cost of living going up across North America and showrooms cannot continue making money like this forever. Too many people have told us that they’re just going to try and wait out the market and see how frugal they can be in the interim. For those of you who don’t recall, our last giant recession took place shortly after housing prices spiked and fuel costs skyrocketed.

[Image: Gretchen Gunda Enger/Shutterstock]

FTC Exploring Consumer Repair Rights Expansion

FTC

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has identified numerous repair restrictions in a new report to Congress. Parts replacement difficulty and parts availability limitations were among the restrictions.

Assisting in expanding repair options available to consumers is within the agency’s power. The Commission works with lawmakers on the state or federal level to provide choices when consumers repairs.

Congress directed the Commission to release the report, knowing that they have been reviewing how manufacturers, particularly automotive and mobile phone makers, have limited repairs by consumers and independent repair shops.

The report, entitled ‘Nixing the Fix: An FTC Report to Congress on Repair Restrictions’, was issued earlier this month.

These limitations increase costs, restrict choice, and impact consumers’ rights protected under the Magnuson-Moss Warranty Act (MMWA). Dealer service department and original equipment parts reliance deceived consumers.

Bill Hanvey, Auto Care Association president/CEO said, “The Association is proud of its efforts to secure right to repair legislation on a state and federal level“.

“We hope this report will be the beginning of increased efforts by the FTC to join us in addressing vehicle manufacturers’ anti-competitive actions.”

Manufacturers must demonstrate that a non-original equipment part or related service caused the problem before denying warranty coverage.

Congress also requested that the FTC make recommendations how to alleviate these problems.

Promoting competition, protecting and educating consumers, and reinforcing best business practices is the work of the FTC.

[Image: © 2021, J. Sakurai/TTAC]

Toyota’s Akio Toyoda Chosen 2021 World Car Person of the Year

Toyoda

Selected 2021 World Car Awards Person of the Year was Akio Toyoda, Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) president and CEO.

Toyoda

“Akio Toyoda is the charismatic President and CEO of Toyota Motor Corporation. He has spent years successfully remaking his company. In 2020 despite COVID-19, under his leadership Toyota remained profitable, protecting jobs worldwide. He has maintained Toyota’s steady pace of development in the connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE) era. He has also initiated construction of the Woven City, an exciting, real-life prototype city of the future. All while actively participating in motorsports himself, as a driver,” said the World Car Awards in a statement.

Toyoda said, “At Toyota, we are very fortunate that we were able to protect the employment of our team members during COVID-19 and continue our work to meet the future challenge of our industry. Creating new ways to support the well-being of our planet and people everywhere is our commitment. This has been a difficult period in the history of the world. But it has also reminded us that people are what matters most. And if we at Toyota can contribute some measure of happiness to their lives, it will be my never-ending goal to do just that.”

Toyoda

Toyota joined the company in 1984, after graduating with a law degree from Keio University. He also received a masters in business administration from Wellesley, Massachusetts’ Babson College. Toyoda served in different areas of the business in Japan and overseas, before becoming a member of the TMC board of directors in 2000. He held other senior and executive vice-presidential roles until becoming TMC president in 2009.

Toyoda The World Car Person of the Year award was established in 2018 to acknowledge the contributions made by an individual in the auto industry during the previous year. The World Car Awards program hands out six awards annually, which they started doing in 2003. A group of more than 90 journalists, none of whom are a part of TheTruthAboutCars.com, made the selection.

[Images: Toyota, Babson College]

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Jim Farley is Allowed to Race, and The Detroit Free Press is Allowed to Write About It

Jim Farley. Image: Ford

Car Twitter is a weird, wonderful online “place”, but sometimes bad takes bubble up. And there’s a double-whammy of bad takery floating around this afternoon.

Take number one: Ford CEO Jim Farley is taking an unnecessary risk by racing cars that could hurt Ford should an accident leave him dead or too injured to work/lead the company, according to some experts interviewed by the Detroit Free Press for a story by Jamie LaReau.

Take number two: The Freep and/or Jamie are dumb for publishing/writing this article.

I do agree with the logic behind the arguments in favor of Farley racing, but that doesn’t make the Freep or LaReau dumb. It’s a reporter writing about what experts think. More on that in a sec.

The logic is this: Farley should be allowed to race because he’s a car guy and enthusiast and it’s arguably better to have a car enthusiast running a car company because a car enthusiast is more likely to understand a unique industry in which many purchase decisions are driven by emotion and/or if Ford is run by a car guy it means there will always be a place for performance cars in the company’s model lineup. Besides, the risk is low.

As I said above, in general, I agree with that, even though it’s not a given that a car guy will do a better job running a car company and/or keep performance cars alive. Just that it’s more likely. And racing today, even in vintage cars, is generally safe, although the risk of death and injury still does exist.

But to castigate the Freep for writing this story is a bit ridiculous.

There’s a “kill the messenger” critique of journalism that has existed for the past five years (and probably before that, but it’s been more noticeable since you-know-who and some of his partisan enablers took up arms against media that was fair and honest but critical). It’s not just relegated to politics — Elon Musk has rallied Tesla fanboys against media the same way, too.

In brief, this critique usually presents itself in one of two circumstances. Circumstance one: The subject of critical reporting deflects by accusing the outlet/journalist of bias and/or incompetence instead of addressing the criticism. Circumstance two: Journalist/outlet interviews a person/expert or multiple persons/experts, the reader doesn’t like what the interviewee(s) say, and instead of critiquing those who were interviewed and their claims, the reader moans that the outlet shouldn’t have published a story that dares to present an argument they don’t agree with — even if the outlet isn’t the one making the argument.

This is an example of the latter. What’s frustrating to me is that some of the annoyed Twitterati aren’t just car enthusiasts — they’re automotive journalists or people who work in the automotive media in some capacity.

In other words, people who should know better.

It would be one thing if LaReau was writing an opinion piece and got flayed for having a take that most people disagreed with. It’s an occupational hazard of writing op-eds. Y’all have flayed me a few times and that’s fine. You write an opinion column, you risk blowback.

But this is a feature story, not arguing either side. At least, LaReau doesn’t appear to be arguing either side — she quotes those who defend Farley’s racing, as well as those who think it’s not a good idea.

There’s also nothing in the piece that isn’t really true. Racing is risky, though far less so than it used to be. And none of the arguments from either side are way off-base. Regardless if you think Farley should race or not, all the arguments are valid.

To be clear, I am not defending LaReau for any personal reason — as small as this industry can be, I am not sure I’ve ever met her. I’d disclose if I knew her, or recuse myself from writing about this.

Has the discourse fallen this far? It’s bad enough that we flame each other, and cherry-pick facts, and fall for mis/disinformation, and that we’re often too tribal. Too often, people care more about “owning” and “destroying” someone in a discussion/debate to worry about being intellectually honest and reasonable.

All that makes for terrible discourse. And now we’re attacking writers and outlets for merely presenting an argument we mildly disagree with? Instead of attacking the argument itself?

This isn’t some free speech/First Amendment/cancel culture rant. The First Amendment doesn’t apply here, and there are some takes that do deserve to be shamed and scorned, and some takes that don’t deserve a platform (Holocaust denial comes to mind). I also think people are far too quick to scream “cancel culture” when someone gets deserved blowback for writing something truly terrible, especially if it’s bigoted in some way.

Obviously, tweeting out that the Freep shouldn’t have published this piece doesn’t rise to the level of screaming at some comic who said something transphobic or racist. But it’s still odd!

Why is so hard to argue that Farley should be allowed to race without suggesting the Freep shouldn’t publish a relatively harmless examination of how big companies insure CEOs who indulge in risky hobbies during their free time?

It’s actually an interesting dive into a part of the business I’ve never given much thought to before.

If you think some insurance experts (who, may I remind you, work for companies with a vested interest in NOT seeing their clients hurt pursuing risky fun during their off hours) are ninnies because they think it’s a bad idea for Farley to race, that’s fine.

Just don’t argue that the Freep can’t give those ninnies an interview because you’re such a ninny yourself that the mere suggestion that Farley hang up the Pilotis gives you the willies.

Yeah, that’s right. Don’t be a ninny.

[Image: Ford]